Development of Dynamic System Models for Fulfilling Ras Chicken Availability In Maintaining Stability of Ras Chicken Meat Price In Bali Province, Indonesia

The purpose of this study is to develop a dynamic system model regarding the availability of broiler chicken meat in the province of Bali, Indonesia and simulate various policy scenarios for the availability of broiler chicken meat for the period 2019 to 2035. This research was conducted in Bali Province which consisted of nine districts/cities, namely Badung; Denpasar; Gianyar; Klungkung; Bangli, Karangasem; Buleleng; Jembrana; and Tabanan. This study used the quantitative method supported with qualitative method, from perspective of dynamic model. The research steps were site selection, determination of reviewed objects, selection of respondents (quantitative and qualitative), selection of data type and source, and selection of key variables through prospective analysis. Based on three criteria, namely price stability, the growth of new businesses/breeders, and quality of meat is always fresh, the priority program is obtained, namely policy through increasing broiler chicken production with a weight of 0.75. While the next program is to reduce the demand for broiler chicken with a weight of 0.16; and the smallest value of the weight is the import policy only obtains a weight of 0.09. It was concluded that the dynamic system model approach to the submodel marketing system, showed that the price movement of retail broiler chicken at the consumer level was influenced by the ratio of supply and demand. Changes in the ratio of supply and demand affect the change in retail prices. Thus, through a dynamic system model approach, it can prove that retail prices at the consumer level move according to changes in the ratio of supply and demand.