AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AS A POST PANDEMIC POTENTIAL SECTOR

Economic growth is an indicator of macro welfare. The economy is always expected to grow positively as an indication of the country's increasing level of welfare. However, economic growth cannot always be achieved in accordance with the expected target. Many factors cause this to happen. One of them is the existence of shocks (both economic and non-economic). Like Indonesia, in the last three decades, it has been hit by two major shocks which caused Indonesia to experience a crisis. Indonesia did not achieve its growth target and even caused its growth to move negatively. These shocks were the 1997/1998 crisis and the 2008 crisis.

Shocks again hit Indonesia and even almost all other countries in the world this year. The shock was the pandemic Corona Virus Desease 19 (Covid-19). Anticipating the spread of the virus is done by limiting the movement of humans. This has an impact on people's economic activities. When compared with previous shocks that hit Indonesia, it can be said that the Covid-19 Pandemic is the worst because of the high uncertainty and the lack of predictions that can explain when the pandemic will end.

The Indonesian government has been trying to anticipate to minimize the negative impact of the pandemic by issuing various stimulus policies. The government has provided additional stimulus spending for handling Covid-19 for health, social safety nets, and national economic recovery. Although these policies were quite capable of maintaining macroeconomic stability in the first quarter, this was not the case with the second quarter. If you look at trends, developments in the second quarter are predicted to experience worse conditions. Economic recovery is still full of uncertainties coupled with the threat of a second wave (second wave) of the spread of the virus. National economic growth in the second quarter is predicted to decline again. The decline was caused by the decline in exports in line with the global economic contraction, the decline in household consumption and investment as a result of the limitation of community activities in the PSBB policy which reduced economic activity.

One of the provinces that felt the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is the Province of Bali. Bali is a province that relies on the tourism sector as a major contributor to growth. The existence of Covid-19 Pandemic forced the Provincial Government of Bali and also district / city governments in Bali Province to impose restrictions on community activities. This limitation on human mobility is really bad for the tourism sector. The cessation of domestic and international transportation routes has completely killed Bali's tourism sector activities. The absence of domestic and international tourist visits has had a domino effect on other supporting sectors. The tourism sector is indeed a sector that is very vulnerable to shocks. This has been proven from the events of the Bali bombing I in 2001 and the Bali bombing II in 2005. However, after the Bali bombing the tourism sector experienced a recovery in a fairly short time. Unlike the Covid-19 Pandemic shocks, whose development cannot be predicted, also has implications for the slowing down of the recovery process in the tourism sector.

After the Bali bombings I and Bali bomb II, Bali quickly restored the confidence of the world community as a safe destination to visit even though there are countries that impose travel warnings and even travel banned for citizens to visit Indonesia, especially to Bali. Both domestic and foreign tourist arrivals experienced a significant increase in a short time. This means, the demand side is experiencing growth and business entrepreuner in the tourism sector in Bali readily offer a variety of services to absorb market demand. That condition caused the recovery process after the Bali bombing to take place quickly.

Unlike the case with the current conditions. Restricting human mobility decreases economic activity of the community not only in Bali but also throughout the world. The next implication is that the process of producing goods and services has stalled, income circulation is also slowing so that purchasing power also decreases. The economy of Bali in the first quarter of 2020 based on constant price GRDP was Rp 38.65 trillion. Bali's economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 experienced negative growth of -1.14 percent (BPS, 2020). When compared with conditions in the fourth quarter of 2019 (q-to-q) which reached 5.51 percent, Bali's economic growth experienced a decrease of -7.67 percent. Based on the business field, the deepest negative growth was experienced by category I (the provision of Accommodation and Food and Beverage) which amounted to -9.11 percent. Followed by Category C (Manufacturing Industry) and Category H (Transportation and Warehousing), respectively decreased -7.95 percent and -6.21 percent. These sectors are the main supporting sectors of tourism.

Based on its structure, Bali's economy is still dominated by category I (Provision of Accommodation and Food and Beverage) with a contribution of 21.81 percent followed by category A (agriculture, forestry, and fisheries). When viewed from the sources of Bali's economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 (q-to-q), category I (Provision of Accommodation and Food and Beverage) was recorded to be the largest source of negative growth (-3.04%) while category A (agriculture, forestry, and fisheries) ) by 0.81 percent. It can be seen that the main supporting sectors of tourism experienced the deepest slump. This can be an indication of the need to find new sources of growth that are more resilient to shocks, such as the agricultural sector. In the midst of shocks, the agricultural sector was able to survive with a decline that was not as sharp as the tourism sectors and also still able to provide a high contribution to the economy of Bali. This is evidence that the agricultural sector is a potential sector as an alternative leading sector of Bali's economic growth center so it needs to be optimized. But unfortunately so far the tourism sector has more confidence as a center of growth compared to the agricultural sector. The agricultural sector must be trusted as a potential sector as a center of growth, one of which can be done by facilitating banking access for this sector. The agricultural sector should no longer be seen as a high-risk sector because in its production process it must deal with nature, but it must be seen as a sector that is able to survive in the midst of shocks. And it has been proven.