ECONOMIC STUDY OF POPULATION "DENPASAR READINESS IN FACING COVID-19"

Preliminary

The Covid-19 outbreak was triggered in December 2019 in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. This virus continues to spread throughout the world. China in particular has been able to suppress the development of the Covid-19 outbreak, but in many countries it is reported that this outbreak continues to increase, including Indonesia. The world health organization (WHO) has declared a public health emergency of international concern to coordinate international responses to the disease (McKibbin and Fernando, 2020). At present Covid-19 has been declared a pandemic.

Indonesia and Bali in particular, which are regions that are connected and integrated with the spread of the epidemic, have the potential to spread quickly if steps are not taken immediately. The impact will be clear on death, morbidity (those who cannot work).

Population: Causes and Impacts

The spread of the Covid-19 Plague is evident through human-to-human relationships. Being in the crowd of people, whether in schools, markets, terminals, buses, airplanes, supermarkets, workplaces, public facilities, and crowded places is very potential Corona Virus spread from one person to another.

Policies restricting people's mobility, such as going to the village, and vice versa, Work From Home (WFH), studying at home are some of the policies that have been taken by the government in an effort to prevent the spread of Corona Virus. Restrictions on various ritual activities, such as Melasti, ogoh-ogoh chanting, and personal restrictions on various other activities are part of efforts to prevent the spread of Corona Virus. Just how discipline / compliance of the community to jointly comply with these rules.

Impact of Work From Home and Study At Home

The effectiveness of WFH and SAH in preventing the spread of Corona Virus is highly dependent on the discipline of all parties, in maintaining a balance of work, education, and other activities. It is this discipline that really needs to be improved. Restrictions on human mobility affect production, distribution, and consumption. Many household needs that were originally bought and sought at the market, with a policy of staying at home must be met in other ways, including among others whose delivery is through Grab-food / Go-food services. This means that there is still potential for virus transmission through this pattern; Discipline of sellers, intermediaries, and consumers is the key to successfully suppressing the possibility of Corona Virus transmission.

Anticipate Human Mobility

In addition to restrictions on activities involving large numbers of people, the great potential for activities involving human mobility between regions is the Lebaran homecoming. The flow of going back and forth involving so many people especially in and out of the city of Denpasar will bring up about twice the return flow. Anticipation that can be done is the Bali lockdown starting H-14 Eid and after. Lockdown needs to be carried out simultaneously for Bali and several other contributing areas for migrants, such as East Java, Central Java, DKI Jakarta, West Nusa Tenggara and East Nusa Tenggara. These areas are the biggest contributors to migrants to Bali.

Anticipating the Economic Impact of Local Lockdown Covid-19

Bali's Lockdown local decision in suppressing the development of the Covid-19 outbreak should be considered immediately. Since the first case was announced on 2 March 2020, Indonesia has reported 1155 cases of Corona, with 102 deaths and 59 patients recovering (Dzulfaroh, 29 March 2020). The case is developing so fast that some areas apply local lockdowns besides physical distancing. Here are some areas that have implemented local lockdown; 1) Tegal City, closed the inflow for 4 months, 2) Tasikmalaya City, after 5 positive cases of Corona Virus appeared in the area, local lockdown began on March 31, 2020. All transportation and transportation are prohibited from entering Tasikmalaya, 3) Papua, Papua have been more first closed the entrance, namely Sentani Airport, starting Thursday, March 26 to April 9, 2020. The airport does not operate except freight transportation that transports logistics, appointment of patients in emergency activities.

Until now, Denpasar has not implemented Local Lockdown but has explicitly implemented WFH and SAH. Denpasar Mayor I.B Rai Dhaemawijaya Mantra also firmly asked its citizens not to return home for a while. It is intended that the spread of Covid-19 not be widespread, because with a high level of human mobility between regions will increase the spread of Covid-19 faster.

Anticipation of Economic Impact if local lockdown is applied, then as soon as possible the calculation is related to the economic impact of population that occurs. The calculation is mainly related to the availability of basic needs of the population for at least the next 6 months. The basic needs include: rice, sugar, cooking oil, beef and chicken meat, chicken eggs, milk, and corn and others. These various basic needs are not only guaranteed to be sufficient to meet the needs of the community, but also the smooth distribution. The application of local lockdown requires the government to also prepare sufficient budgets to support these basic needs. All parties work together and work together to help the success of local lockdown, therefore the tolerance process is very important for all citizens to understand. The groups of people who will feel the most impact from this local lockdown are low income and non-permanent people. The mapping of needs of community groups needs to be done in a coordinated way so that new social problems do not emerge. Various local wisdom social activities need to be done as part of efforts to improve social conditions among community groups united in dealing with problems.

One of the important local wisdoms that Denpasar City has is the solid relationship between community groups through the banjar system. Mapping needs, distribution of various community needs can be channeled through the banjar system. This pattern will greatly facilitate the control of continuity in meeting the needs of the community in dealing with common problems.

Closing

In an effort to strengthen the spread of the spread of Covid-19, especially in the city of Denpasar, it can be concluded as follows:

1) Consolidation and effectiveness of working from home and studying at home. Discipline and awareness of all citizens is a key factor in the success of the policy of working from home and learning at home.

2) Prohibition of returning to the village for a while needs to be emphasized including welcoming Lebaran.

3) The possibility of applying local lockdown for Denpasar as a high mobility area needs to consider the following:

a) Mapping needs, availability of goods supply and smooth distribution

b) Education of citizens as part of the joint awareness process

c) The government must prepare a sufficient budget to secure the readiness of the people's basic needs during the local lockdown

4) The development of local mutual cooperation between community groups towards other communities based on the banjar system is expected to not only be able to increase community togetherness but also foster social tolerance in dealing with common problems.

Reference:

Ahmad Naufal Dzulfaroh, 2020. List of Regions in Indonesia that apply "Local Lockdown".

McKibbin, Warwick and Roshen Fernando. 2020. The Economic Impact of COVID-19. In   Richard Baldwin and Beatrice Weder