Top Gear Race The Estimation of Societys Choice On Transportation Mode Using A Multinomial Logit Model

Bali as part of Indonesian growing economy is facing an increasing demand of transportation infrastructures. In order to response high demand of transportation infrastructure, and to prevent the threat of traffic congestion, the government of Bali provides the society with a public transportation and a brand new toll road. These infrastructures give an opportunity to society to decide between travel by their own car/motorcycle or public transport. For the government, it is important to set efficient transportation infrastructures to escape from high cost economy which appear from traffic congestion. This paper investigates society’s choice on transportation mode in Denpasar City. We estimate the passenger’s choice data using a Multinomial Logit model, with income and number of congestion spot as independent variables. The result shows that passenger who has high value of time prefer to travel by their own vehicle compare to public transport. The result is analogue to the Top Gear Race, where the cars most of the time win the race against the public transport. Finally, from the society’s point of view, we can say that the development of infrastructures of public transportation, which has been done by the government, still less attractive compare to the private transportation. Key words: preference, transportation infrastructure, lost minimization, multinomial logit.