UTANG LUAR NEGERI PEMERINTAH INDONESIA, KAJIAN TERHADAP FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG BERPENGARUH

The repayment of of foreign debt and its interest became an increasing burden from year to year in line with the increasing of accumulated amount of foreign debt, thus burdening the State Budget (Budget). The burden of debt in the end worsen the condition of the community. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of indirect tax revenues and the budget deficit on foreign debt through the development expenditure, the indirect effect of the budget deficit and repayments of foreign debt to the foreign debt through the exchange of dollars and directly determine the effect of development spending, dollar exchange rate, foreign debt a year earlier against the government's foreign debt. Variables were analyzed by using path analysis to determine the direct and indirect effects of variables in the model study. Testing the validity of the model using the coefficient of total determination and triming theory to determine the magnitude of variation in foreign debt that can be explained by the its exogen variable. Data is taken form the publish of BPS, Kemenkeu and BI. Based on the result of regression, it is found that the effect of tax revenue to the government's foreign debt through the development expenditure amounted to 24.4 percent and became the most dominant variable among the variables that indirectly affect the government's foreign debt. Effect of total development expenditure of the government's foreign debt amounted to 25.2 percent. Effect of total dollar exchange rate against the government's foreign debt amounted to 26.3 percent. Effect of total foreign debt a year earlier against the government's foreign debt amounted to 39.5 percent and it is the most dominant variable that affect on the government's foreign debt. To reduce the burden of foreign debt in the future the government should increase tax revenue in order to be able to finance the entire state budget and stop the policy of closing the old debt with new debt, external debt that is taken can be used for productive measures that can bring prosperity to the community. Keywords : foreign debt, government spending, exchange rate, deficit financing