Perbandingan Peramalan Hasil Produksi Ikan Menggunakan Metode Permulusan Eksponensial Holt-Winters dan ARIMA

Every year fish consumption in Indonesia always increases. Basis landing of fish (PPI) Kedonganan is one of the ports where the ships docked and take part in economic activities of fisheries in Bali. The aim of this study is to forecast the amount of fish production so that the fish production can be managed. Some methods that can handle seasonal factors in time series forecasting include HoltWinters exponential smoothing and ARIMA. The results show that ARIMA(2,0,4)×(3,1,2)12 yields RMSE is 89,358 and MAPE is 0.81% whereas the value of fish outcomes prediction using HoltWinters exponential smoothing method yields RMSE is 119,158 and MAPE is 1.14%